Ejoo writer
Soviet-era spacecraft expected to plunge uncontrolled to Earth next week
A 1970s Spacecraft Heading Back to Earth
A spacecraft launched by the Soviet Union in the early 1970s is expected to fall back to Earth uncontrolled next week. The spacecraft, called Kosmos 482, was originally designed to land on Venus. But because of a rocket malfunction, it never left Earth’s orbit and has been circling the planet for over 50 years.
Now, experts say the spacecraft is finally getting close enough to Earth that it will fall back through the atmosphere. No one knows exactly where it will land, but scientists are keeping a close watch.
Why Is It Falling Now?
When Kosmos 482 was launched in 1972, it was supposed to travel to Venus as part of the Soviet Union’s space exploration program. However, a problem with its rocket left it stuck in orbit around Earth. Over the years, the spacecraft’s orbit has been slowly shrinking.
Most parts of the original spacecraft fell back to Earth within 10 years of the launch. But the landing capsule — a heavy, round object built to survive a tough descent onto Venus — remained in orbit. For 53 years, this capsule has been circling Earth in a wide, elliptical path. Now, it’s finally dropping low enough that Earth’s gravity will pull it into the atmosphere.
Scientist Predicts Re-Entry on 10 May
Marco Langbroek, a Dutch space expert, has been tracking Kosmos 482. He predicts the spacecraft will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 10 May. Once it starts falling, it could hit the ground at a speed of around 150 miles per hour (242 kilometers per hour) if it stays mostly intact.
Langbroek said people shouldn’t be too worried. He explained that the risk is about the same as the risk of a meteorite randomly falling from the sky — something that happens a few times each year. “You’re more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime,” he said in an email.
Small Risk, but Not Zero
Although the chance of Kosmos 482 hitting someone or something is very low, Langbroek says it cannot be completely ruled out. Even though the spacecraft is heavy — it weighs around 500 kilograms (1,000 pounds) — most of it could burn up while passing through Earth’s atmosphere.
Still, some parts, especially the capsule’s metal shell, could survive the intense heat and make it to the ground. Scientists are trying to predict where it might fall, but it’s very difficult to know in advance.
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Built to Survive Harsh Conditions
Kosmos 482’s landing capsule was built to survive the harsh atmosphere of Venus, which is full of thick carbon dioxide and high temperatures. That means it was designed with a strong heat shield and a durable outer shell.
Because of this, experts think it’s possible that the capsule could survive the heat of re-entering Earth’s atmosphere too. But some parts may have been damaged or weakened after more than 50 years in space.
The spacecraft also had a parachute system designed to slow it down during landing. However, Langbroek and other scientists doubt the parachutes will work now after so many years exposed to radiation and extreme conditions in space.
Heat Shield: A Key Factor
Another expert, Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, explained that the condition of the heat shield will play a big role in what happens during re-entry.
If the heat shield is damaged or fails, the spacecraft will likely burn up completely as it passes through the atmosphere. This would be the safest outcome because it would prevent large pieces from reaching the ground.
But if the heat shield still works, the capsule could stay intact and fall to Earth as a heavy metal object. In that case, it could hit the ground with significant force, although the chances of it hitting a populated area remain small.
Where Could It Land?
Experts say Kosmos 482 could land anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude. This range includes areas as far north as London, UK, or Edmonton, Canada, and as far south as Cape Horn in South America.
Since much of this area is covered by oceans, scientists believe the spacecraft will most likely fall into water. “Chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean,” Langbroek said.
Even though the exact landing spot can’t be predicted until shortly before re-entry, experts are confident it won’t cause a large-scale disaster.
Similar Events Have Happened Before
This isn’t the first time a large object has made an uncontrolled return to Earth. In 2022, a Chinese rocket booster fell back to Earth in an uncontrolled re-entry. And in 2018, China’s Tiangong-1 space station also re-entered the atmosphere and burned up over the south Pacific Ocean.
In both cases, no one was hurt and no serious damage was reported. These events remind us that while falling space debris sounds scary, the risk to people on the ground is usually very small.
Space Junk: A Growing Concern
Kosmos 482 is just one of many old satellites and spacecraft still circling Earth as space debris. As more objects are launched into orbit, scientists are becoming more concerned about the growing amount of debris around our planet.
Some experts are calling for better rules and plans to safely remove old spacecraft from orbit before they fall back uncontrolled. Systems like controlled re-entry or de-orbiting engines could help prevent risks in the future.
Should You Be Worried?
According to the scientists tracking Kosmos 482, people don’t need to be worried or afraid. The chances of being hit are extremely low, much lower than many other risks we face in everyday life.
Still, it’s an interesting reminder that space missions from decades ago can have effects that last for a very long time. Kosmos 482, launched in 1972, is finally returning home — even if it wasn’t part of the original plan.
