Ejoo writer
India-Pakistan Water War 2025: A Detailed Overview of the Growing Crisis
The year 2025 has brought fresh tensions to the Indian subcontinent, rekindling fears of conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors: India and Pakistan. After a brutal terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians, India has taken the unprecedented step of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a cornerstone agreement that has governed water-sharing between the two nations for over six decades. This move marks a critical escalation, with both sides now on the brink of a full-fledged “water war.”
In this article, we will explore the background of the conflict, the significance of the Indus Waters Treaty, the immediate triggers of the water dispute, potential consequences, and the international community’s response.
Also explore: Can India Really Stop River Water from Flowing into Pakistan?
Background: The Pahalgam Attack and Rising Hostilities
On April 23, 2025, a horrific terrorist attack targeted tourists in Pahalgam, a popular destination in Indian-administered Kashmir. Heavily armed militants opened fire indiscriminately, resulting in 26 deaths, including women and children. While a group called “Kashmir Resistance” claimed responsibility, Indian intelligence sources linked the attackers to Pakistan-based militant networks, especially Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Although Pakistan denied any involvement and condemned the attack, India accused Islamabad of harboring and supporting these groups—a longstanding grievance between the two countries.
The Pahalgam tragedy rekindled public anger in India, leading Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to take strong retaliatory measures. Among them, the most drastic was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a move that dramatically escalated the standoff.
The Indus Waters Treaty: A Brief History
Signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty is considered one of the most successful international agreements regarding water-sharing.
Under the treaty:
India controls the three eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
Pakistan controls the three western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
The treaty provided detailed guidelines on water usage, dam construction, and conflict resolution. Even during wars and major conflicts (1965, 1971, and 1999 Kargil War), the IWT remained intact, symbolizing a rare area of cooperation.
However, by suspending the treaty in 2025, India has taken a radical step, challenging one of the key stabilizing mechanisms between the two nations.
India’s Decision to Suspend the Treaty
Following the Pahalgam attack, India’s cabinet convened an emergency session. Emerging from this meeting, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar announced:
“India can no longer guarantee the provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty when our very blood is being shed with impunity.”
India cited two key reasons for suspending the treaty:
National Security: India argues that allowing Pakistan free access to water resources indirectly supports its military and terrorist proxies.
Leverage: By threatening Pakistan’s critical water supplies, India hopes to pressure Islamabad into cracking down on terrorist activities.
The decision also plays well domestically, boosting the Modi government’s popularity among a public demanding strong action.
Pakistan’s Response: A Call to Arms?
Pakistan reacted furiously to India’s announcement.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif labeled India’s move as an “act of war,” warning that any disruption to water flow into Pakistan would be met with “appropriate and forceful” retaliation.
Pakistan’s primary concerns include:
Agriculture Dependence: About 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus waters. Disruption could devastate crops and trigger food shortages.
Economic Crisis: Already facing economic hardships, Pakistan can ill afford another crisis.
Internal Unrest: Water scarcity could provoke civil unrest in urban and rural areas alike.
The Pakistani military has been placed on high alert, with increased troop movements reported along the Line of Control (LoC).
Military Escalations Along the LoC
Following the suspension, tensions have flared along the volatile LoC in Kashmir:
Cross-border firing has been reported almost nightly since April 23.
Both India and Pakistan have blamed each other for ceasefire violations.
Casualties among soldiers and civilians have been confirmed, but numbers remain disputed.
There is a real risk that skirmishes could escalate into larger military operations, especially if water infrastructure becomes a target.
Humanitarian Concerns: Water as a Weapon
Water scarcity is a grave threat to Pakistan’s 220 million citizens.
Cities like Lahore and Karachi are already experiencing sporadic water shortages.
Farmers in Punjab, the breadbasket of Pakistan, have warned of imminent crop failures if water levels drop.
Health experts fear outbreaks of water-borne diseases due to contaminated supplies.
International humanitarian organizations, including the International Red Cross, have expressed grave concerns about using water as a geopolitical weapon.
International Response: Calls for Restraint
The global community has reacted with alarm:
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called on both nations to honor international agreements and return to dialogue.
The United States urged both sides to show “maximum restraint” and offered to mediate.
China, a close ally of Pakistan, has called the situation “dangerous” and has reportedly offered diplomatic support to Islamabad.
Russia has offered to host peace talks.
Meanwhile, the World Bank, a guarantor of the Indus Waters Treaty, has been urged to intervene and bring both parties back to negotiations.
Legal Complexities: Can India Unilaterally Cancel the Treaty?
Experts argue that the Indus Waters Treaty is technically a binding international agreement, and its unilateral suspension could be challenged in international courts.
International Court of Justice (ICJ): Pakistan may approach the ICJ, arguing that India is violating international law.
World Bank Mediation: As the original broker of the treaty, the World Bank may try to mediate and preserve the agreement.
However, legal processes could take years, and the immediate impact on water flow would still hurt Pakistan severely.
Long-Term Consequences
If the situation remains unresolved, several dire outcomes are possible:
Water Crisis in Pakistan: Widespread drought, famine, and internal displacement could follow.
Full-Scale War: Military conflict, including possible airstrikes on dams and barrages, could escalate.
Nuclear Tensions: Given both nations’ nuclear capabilities, even limited conflict carries the risk of nuclear escalation.
Regional Destabilization: Afghanistan, China, Iran, and even the Gulf states could feel the economic and security impacts.
Possible Solutions
Several paths forward could de-escalate the crisis:
Reinstating the Treaty: Under international pressure, India and Pakistan could agree to renegotiate or amend the treaty to address India’s concerns.
Third-Party Mediation: Involving the UN, the World Bank, or neutral countries like Switzerland.
Independent Terror Investigations: If Pakistan allows international investigators to probe militant activity, India may soften its stance.
Joint Water Management Council: A new body to address disputes in real time could be established.
However, mutual trust—a commodity currently in short supply—is essential for any of these solutions to work.
Conclusion: India-Pakistan Water War 2025
The India-Pakistan Water War of 2025 has opened a dangerous new front in an already volatile relationship. Water, the most vital of all resources, has now become a weapon of war, endangering millions of lives.
While military posturing dominates the headlines, the real battle may soon be for the hearts, minds, and survival of ordinary citizens on both sides of the border.
The world watches anxiously as two of Asia’s most powerful nations inch closer to disaster. Only visionary leadership, meaningful dialogue, and international mediation can pull them back from the brink.
