Ejoo writer
Can India Really Stop River Water from Flowing into Pakistan? [Full Analysis]
The tension between India and Pakistan has a new dimension — water. After India suspended a major water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, many are wondering: Can India really stop river water from flowing into Pakistan? Let’s dive deep into the history, current situation, and what the future might hold.
Also Explore: India-Pakistan Water War 2025
The Indus Waters Treaty: A Pillar of Peace
In 1960, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with help from the World Bank. This treaty was a major achievement because it survived two wars and decades of political hostility. Even during their most bitter moments, both countries respected the treaty.
The Indus Waters Treaty decided:
India would get full rights over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
Pakistan would get around 80% of the water from the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
This arrangement was crucial for Pakistan, as the Indus basin is the backbone of its agriculture and a major source of its drinking water and hydropower.
Why Did India Suspend the Treaty?
Tensions escalated after a horrific attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism — a charge Pakistan has strongly denied.
In response, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, marking the first time either country has taken such a drastic step. Pakistan quickly warned that stopping the flow of water would be considered an “Act of War.” Both nations then introduced retaliatory diplomatic and economic measures.
How Water Sharing Has Caused Disputes Before
Even before the suspension, there were frequent arguments over water projects.
Pakistan’s Concerns:
Pakistan often objected to India’s hydropower plants and dam constructions.
It feared that these projects would reduce river flows into Pakistan and violate the treaty.
Since Pakistan’s food security and economy rely heavily on these rivers, any decrease in water supply could be disastrous.
India’s Argument:
India pointed out that it was not even using its full share of water under the treaty.
Indian officials argue that changing needs like urban growth, increased farming, and climate change mean the treaty should be updated.
They also believe they have the right to build projects for non-consumptive uses like hydropower.
Is It Technically Possible for India to Stop the Water?
Many experts say: Not easily.
Infrastructure Limitations:
India currently lacks the huge dams, reservoirs, and canal systems needed to stop or divert the massive volume of water from the western rivers, especially during the rainy season.
Himanshu Thakkar, a water resources expert, explained:
“India mostly has run-of-the-river projects. These generate electricity by using flowing water without needing large storage.”
Thus, India can’t simply “turn off” the rivers overnight.
High-Flow Period Challenges:
During the monsoon (June to September), the rivers swell with tens of billions of cubic meters of water. Without enormous storage capacity, India cannot capture or control this flood of water.
What India Can Potentially Do?
Even though it can’t stop the rivers completely, India still has some powerful options:
1. Building More Dams and Storage Facilities
India can speed up construction of projects it already planned or started.
New dams could store more water and control release timings, giving India more leverage.
However, building large dams is not easy:
Difficult Terrain: The Himalayas and northern India are geographically challenging.
Internal Opposition: Many environmental groups and local communities in India protest against new dam constructions.
Thus, even speeding up projects could take years, not months.
2. Modifying Existing Infrastructure
India could adjust existing structures to:
Hold water temporarily
Divert small portions for its own use
Since India has now suspended treaty obligations, it may no longer be required to share project designs with Pakistan, making it easier to proceed.
3. Impacting Pakistan During Dry Seasons
Experts warn that if India controls even small amounts of water during the dry season (October to March), the effects on Pakistan could be significant.
During dry months:
River flows are naturally lower.
Every drop matters for agriculture and drinking supplies.
Stopping the Flow of Information: Another Weapon?
Under the treaty, India was required to share hydrological data (like river flow measurements) with Pakistan.
This information helps Pakistan:
Predict floods
Plan irrigation
Manage drinking water and hydropower
Now, India could stop providing this data. Pradeep Kumar Saxena, a former Indian water commissioner, said that India now has no legal obligation to share flood forecasts. However, according to Shiraz Memon, a former Pakistani commissioner, India was already sharing only about 40% of the data even before the suspension.
Can India Use Water as a “Weapon”?
Another fear is whether India could unleash a “water bomb” — temporarily storing water and then suddenly releasing it to flood Pakistan.
Experts say this is very risky for India too:
India’s dams are located far from the Pakistani border.
Sudden releases could first cause massive flooding in Indian areas before reaching Pakistan.
Yet, there is a possibility that India could:
Flush silt from its dams without warning.
This sudden mud and debris flow could damage Pakistan’s farms, villages, and water systems downstream.
Such moves, even if not full-scale floods, could create significant economic and environmental harm in Pakistan.
China’s Role in the Regional Water Story
The water battle between India and Pakistan is further complicated by China’s control of the region’s upper rivers.
The Indus River originates in Tibet, under Chinese authority.
India is downstream of China on the Brahmaputra River (called Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet).
In 2016, after another India-Pakistan conflict, China blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra. Though Beijing said it was for hydropower development, many saw it as a political signal in support of Pakistan.
Now, China is building the world’s largest dam in Tibet on the Yarlung Tsangpo, causing serious concerns in India.
India fears that:
China could manipulate river flows.
In a future crisis, Beijing might use water as a political weapon against India.
The Bigger Picture: Water Wars in South Asia?
Water scarcity is becoming a growing threat across South Asia.
Climate change is already affecting:
Glacier melt in the Himalayas
Monsoon patterns
River flows
At the same time:
Population growth is driving up water demand.
Agricultural needs are rising.
Countries like India, Pakistan, and China could increasingly clash over water resources, unless they find new ways to cooperate.
As water becomes more precious, there is a real danger that rivers could trigger conflicts just like oil once did.
Conclusion: Can India Really Cut Off Pakistan’s Water?
In short, not immediately and not completely.
Here’s why:
India doesn’t yet have the storage capacity to fully control the mighty Indus basin rivers.
Building the needed infrastructure would take years and face many challenges.
However, India can gradually tighten control during the dry seasons, impacting Pakistan’s farming and water supplies.
Cutting off hydrological data can also hurt Pakistan’s flood preparedness.
Though large-scale “water bombs” are unlikely, smaller acts like silt flushing could cause serious trouble downstream.
Thus, while the full blockade of river water is unrealistic in the near future, India does have ways to create significant pressure on Pakistan.
In a region already fraught with tension, the battle for water could become just as important as traditional political or military struggles.
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FAQs
Q1: What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
The Indus Waters Treaty is a 1960 agreement between India and Pakistan that governs the sharing of the Indus River and its tributaries, mediated by the World Bank.
Q2: Can India legally stop river water flowing into Pakistan?
Under the current treaty, India cannot fully block the water. However, after suspending the treaty, India has more freedom to develop infrastructure and impact the water flow during dry seasons.
Q3: How important is the Indus River for Pakistan?
Extremely important — around 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus basin system for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower generation.
Q4: Can water conflicts trigger wars in South Asia?
While unlikely in the immediate future, rising tensions over water resources could contribute to larger political and military disputes if not handled carefully.
